US cargo airline profitability back to pre-recession levels in 2009Q4.

Key points for Q2:

• Heads of cargo confident in further gains in future volumes and yields.
• Freight volumes temporarily interrupted by ash plume but had grown at 26% annualized pace in 2010Q1.
• Yields up 15% by 2010Q1 as load factors regain pre-9/11 levels, but considerable variation by directional and geographical market in the strength of both volumes and yields.
• Multi-speed economic outlook, with emerging economy strength and European weakness likely to shape 2010 cargo markets.
• Interest rates rising in Asia-Pacific and Greek crisis looks set to trigger earlier and larger withdrawal of fiscal stimulus in Europe.
• Shippers still very confident but business inventory cycle appears to be over which will put a brake on pace of air freight expansion.
• Market share gains early in economic cycle also coming to an end but 20%+ growth in world trade in 2010Q1 means plenty of demand for all transport modes at present.
• Risks and geographical differences remain but outlook for air cargo looks better than it has for the past two years.

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